The forecasts make different assumptions about social distancing measures. Įnsemble and specific team forecast performance is evaluated using a variety of metrics, including the assessment of prediction interval coverage. įorecast Inclusion, Evaluation, and Assumptionsįorecasts are listed when they meet a set of submission and data quality requirements and a subset are included in the ensemble. Plots of the state-level ensemble forecast and the underlying data can be downloaded below.Īdditional forecast data and information about submitting forecasts are available at the COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Each state forecast figure uses a different scale due to differences in the number of COVID-19 deaths between states and only forecasts meeting a set of ensemble inclusion criteria are shown. State-level forecasts show the predicted number of new COVID-19 deaths for the next 4 weeks by state. See model descriptions below for details on the assumptions and methods used to produce the forecasts.ĭownload national forecast data State Forecasts Models make various assumptions about the levels of social distancing and other interventions, which may not reflect recent changes in behavior.This week, 16 modeling groups contributed a forecast that was eligible for inclusion in the new or total deaths ensemble forecasts for at least one jurisdiction.

The figures show the number of new (left) and total (right) COVID-19 deaths reported in the United States each week from June 4 through August 6 and forecasted over the next 4 weeks, through September 3.They should not be relied upon for making decisions about the possibility or timing of rapid changes in trends. While they have been among the most reliable forecasts in performance over time, even the ensemble forecasts have not reliably predicted rapid changes in the trends of reported cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. Ensemble forecasts combine diverse independent team forecasts into one forecast.The state- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that over the next 4 weeks, the number of newly reported deaths per week will remain stable or have an uncertain trend in all jurisdictions.The national ensemble predicts that a total of 1,043,000 to 1,053,000 COVID-19 deaths will be reported by this date. This week’s national ensemble predicts that the number of newly reported COVID-19 deaths will remain stable or have an uncertain trend over the next 4 weeks, with 1,800 to 6,000 new deaths likely reported in the week ending September 3, 2022.Interpretation of Forecasts of New and Total Deaths

Us covid deaths